Pipeline Lifecycle Risk Model

Simms, R. (2026). Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Pipeline Integrity (CSA Z662-Aligned) — Manuscript in preparation for journal submission

Project Overview

This project was designed during my tenure at the Estevean Field Office location, where I developed a hierarchical risk assessment framework to evaluate pipeline integrity risks across the entire lifecycle, including design, construction, operation, maintenance, deactivation, and abandonment phases.

Engineering Methods

Hierarchical Holographic Modelling (HHM)
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
Quantitative Risk Ranking
CSA Z662 regulatory alignment

Engineering Formula

RPN = Severity × Occurrence × Detection
Risk Score = Probability × Consequence
Outcome probability: P(outcome) = P(IE) × P(barrier 1) × P(barrier 2)....
Baysian theory

Severity = consequence magnitude
Occurrence = probability of failure.

Detection = likelihood of detecting failure before escalation

Risk Identification - HHM phase:

A total of 490 risk scenarios were identified across engineering, operational, safety, and environmental domains. These were listed globally within the HHM setup.

The risk model integrates:

HHM + FMEA + Event Tree Analysis and the expected result as a siphoning filter; holistic risks to critical risk(s), as illustrated in the lower right of the dashboard.

The dashboard illustrates a cumulative array of data pulled from the most relevant aspects of the model to highlight points and to guide the engineering team on how risks are escalated within lifecycles.

Methodology Setup

The methodology followed a structured sequence and consisted of several steps designed to aid the risk assessment of each pipeline lifecycle stage, as illustrated in the process diagram

This thorough methodological multi-layered risk assessment process aims to strengthen the risk assessment evaluation of the different life cycle phases (design, construction, operation and maintenance, deactivation and abandonment). The primary objective was to enhance the engineering integrity management program within the Oil and Gas industry, focusing on regulatory compliance with minimum applicable standards, regular reviews, ongoing monitoring, and continuous improvement, ultimately mitigating risks. This aims to address prospective engineering problems that impact integrity, reliability, operationality and sustainability.

FMEA:

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis is a systematic, proactive engineering method used to identify potential failure modes in this process / risks before they occur.

Example.

Failure mode

Pipeline corrosion due to soil chemistry.

Severity = 7

Occurrence = 6

Detection = 5

The RPN product give s 210 to rank the failure mode(s)

Mitigation measures are implemented with CSA-Z662-23 as the minimum requirment to abide to, that aims to lessens the impact if the risk should occur.

This demonstrates asset integrity engineering.

ETA:

Event tree analysis evaluates barrier effectiveness after failure events with the highest Severity and RPN at the Initial and Final stage.

This demonstrates probabilistic risk assessment.

IRI - Integrated Risk Index:

Using consequence categories derived from a combined matrix of CSA regulatory compliance and Environmental impact, a Risk Matrix was developed and used to carry out calculations for Clause Weight Consequence (CW_c) and IRI.

CW_c = [CSA_c + ENV_c] /2
IRI = [Prob * tC * CW_c] / 5

Team Members worked with

5- Technicians

1 - Specialist

1- Field Manager

In this project my role was the developer and researcher while carrying out field inspection of oil and gas wells and witnessing of mechanical integrity test.

I worked directly with the Field Manager and research supervisor to achieve this goal.

Additional Minor Projects

Prepared monthly technical reports summarizing technicians' performance and operators' compliance findings, due dates and overdue actions.
Extrapolated, managed and analyzed data from 2015 to 2025 and prepared monthly reports via PowerPoint presentations.

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